What I've Learned from the First Two Weeks

I cleverly forgot to post my picks at the end of last week for week 2 in the NFL. I say cleverly because my picks, as it turned out, sucked. I'm 8-6 going into tonight's game in Dallas and will not be cracking the ten-win mark for the second week in a row. However, having had the chance to actually watch a lot more football this weekend than last, I think I may have learned a few things. Division by division, I'm going to run through the things I think I think after most of the teams have played an eighth of their games.

AFC East:
The Pats are still going to be a decent team because of the strength they've got on D and because of the genius they've got on the sidelines. Cassel will make sure he doesn't lose the games for them and the Pats will put up 10 to 12 wins. The Bills are a lot better than I ever believed, largely because their D is playing great! The Jets will hang around with Brett, but probably won't be a threat as the year plays out. And the Dolphins, while dramatically better than last year's 1-15 team, will still be the doormat of the division.

AFC West:
San Diego got totally jobbed this week. Can they bounce back from two straight heartbreakers? This next one against NE will tell us a lot. o-3 might be too big a hole to come back from. Denver, aided by the officiating, have jumped out to 2-0, but I'd be a bit worried about all the points they gave up. They're going to win a lot this year, but they're going to lose some too if they have to rely on being on the positive side of the shootouts every time. The Raiders are slightly better than I gave them credit for, but they're still going to lose most of their games. After all, the win yesterday was against the Chiefs who could threaten that 0-16 mark that the Dolphins were looking at last year.

AFC North:
We haven't seen enough of the Ravens to pass much judgement yet, but the Steelers appear to be the class of this division again. The Browns are in huge trouble as the only team to be 0-2 with both losses coming at home. The Bengals look pretty terrible again with their offense failing completely to come together. It's hard to infer much more from these first two weeks, but if I had to make a prediction, Pittsburgh will win the division and none of these other teams will be in the playoffs.

AFC South:
Great win by Peyton and the Colts on Sunday, but the injuries are going to make it hard every week for them to get W's. The Titans are 2-0, but with one of those against the Bengals, and with Kerry Collins now being the go to guy at QB, I don't have a ton of faith in the winning streak continuing for long. Who knows what to make of the Texans yet, with their game pushed back to November because of Ike. As for the Jags, I'm quite surprised at the start. They were widely selected as a Super Bowl contender but they've stunk it up for the first two weeks. Both of the teams that beat them are now 2-0, so perhaps they've just run across good teams, but Indy is going to be another tough opponent this coming week too. If they can't bounce back and get a W, their season is going down the tubes early. This division is still a toss up, but as Indy heals, I think they're still the team to beat.

NFC East:
How do you call this division before seeing the battle in Dallas tonight? I've got Dallas as the class of the division, but Donovan could show me otherwise tonight for sure. The Giants look great again on D with their offense good enough to win a bunch of games. And even Washington looked great this week after I wrote them off for a crappy week 1 performance. This division is completely stacked and too tough to call. But I'll be picking them an awful lot when any of the teams play outside the division.

NFC West:
As stacked as the East is, the West is bad. There's not a team in this division that I will have any faith in on any given Sunday. Kurt Warner has the Cards looking okay but who knows how long he can hang on. The Niners are a .500 team at best as J.T. O'Sullivan finds his way in his first year as a starter. The Seahawks, struggling with wide receiver injuries, have been pathetic on D and aren't going to stop anyone. And the Rams ... where to even begin. They'll battle the Chiefs for the basement this year. Is this the year the Cards finally make the playoffs? They've got a 2 game headstart on the Seahawks who I would have picked before the season. But there's a lot of football left.

NFC South:
The Panthers at 2-0 are a surprise to me, and getting Steve Smith back after his two week suspension can only make them better. The Saints looked pretty good to me both weeks, but their D let them down badly giving up two touchdowns in the last 6 minutes this week to lose by 5. That kind of performance is going to cost them big when they play better teams than SF. The Falcons game back to earth and will struggle this year with their rookie QB at the helm and teams clogging up the middle to stop the run. I'm not sure what to make of Tampa yet, but I don't think they're a playoff team. We'll learn more in weeks 4 and 5 when they play Green Bay and Denver. If I have to pick it now, the Panthers win this division and the Saints make a run at a wild card spot.

NFC North:
Evidently, the Packers are going to be just fine without Brett. Rodgers has played very solid ball the first two weeks, minimizing mistakes and letting the solid team around him take care of the rest. The Bears have been really solid on D, but the fact that they still have no QB will cost them in the long run I think. The Vikings look surprisingly inept. We all knew they were going to have QB troubles, but the performances these first two weeks were just pathetic. And speaking of pathetic, this division gets rounded out by the Lions. What other team could possible be losing by 21, leading by 1, and then losing again by 23, all in the same game. I look down their schedule and can't find a game where they should be favoured. They don't get to play the Chiefs or the Rams. Yet if history tells me anything, they'll win a couple of games they have no right to win. Maybe even enough to save Matt Millen's and Rod Marinelli's jobs again. Let's hope not. Pack win this division in a walk.