NFL Week 11 and NHL Conspiracy Theories

It was a fantastic game last night, even if my pick turned out wrong. Favre took care of the ball better than I said he would. Belichick's boys got completely outschemed on defense and couldn't come up with key stops when the Jets stopped playing not to lose and started playing to win in the fourth quarter and OT. And despite last minute heroics from Cassel and finally a big play from Moss, New England simply made too many costly mistakes (dropped balls, dumb penalties, gave up kickoff return for TD) to come away with a W. I think both of these teams have some fundamental flaws on defense right now, but they're operating awfully well on the other side of the ball. With both teams having some very winable games down the stretch, a repeat of last night in the playoffs could be something to look forward to!

And now for the rest of my thoughts on the games this weekend. I feel like there are a lot of pretty straightforward picks, so I'm probably going to get trounced by upsets. But here we go anyways ...

Falcons over Broncos - Every week I wait for Matt Ryan and this young Falcons team to crash back to earth and every week they prove me wrong. I'll take them and hope for the best against a very flawed Broncos team.

Eagles over Bengals - The Bengals have lost coming out of their bye seemingly every year for the last decade. Philly played a close one against the Giants last week and is without question the better team here. They should win easily.

Bears over Packers - The QB situation in Chicago is still a question mark this week, but Green Bay just played so terribly against Minnesota last week that I can't overlook it. They should be well motivated here, but I like the Bears to get a boost out of having hung so tough against the unbeaten Titans last Sunday. Bears in a close one.

Colts over Texans - Peyton is finally in a groove and Houston can't seem to win on the road, so this pick doesn't seem too hard. Indy has tended to make life difficult this year though and they didn't deserve to win the first matchup between the two this year. It could be close, but I can't go against Peyton at home.

Saints over Chiefs - I really want to pick KC here. New Orleans has been completely unpredictable with Brees putting up passing records but still failing to win and the Chiefs have been right in their last couple of games with chances to win in the final moments. But still, it's the 1-8 Chiefs and I can't overlook the fact that they just can't seem to get it done.

Dolphins over Raiders - How did Oakland get two wins this year? And Detroit can't get one? Bizarre ... too bad Oakland isn't on the Lions' schedule. Give this one to Miami in a walk.

Giants over Ravens - Just like with the Falcons and Matt Ryan, I keep waiting for reality to set in for the rookie QB - rookie coach tandem in Baltimore. Yet every week they show up and do enough to win with the defense playing exceptionally. I think they might meet their match this week though with NY forcing a turnover or two that will change the game.

Steelers over Chargers - I never would have believed that San Diego would struggle so badly to be a .500 team this year. What's even harder to believe is that it's very conceivable for both them and Denver to enter week 17 against each other at 7-8, playing for the division title and a playoff berth. That's one sad division.

49ers over Rams - Mike Singletary gets his first win here! The Rams continue to suck. Nobody cares. Let's move on.

Seahawks over Cardinals - Yes, I know. This pick is asking for trouble. 2-7 to beat 6-3 you ask? Yup. Seattle would have won last week with a moderately adequate performance from the QB and this week they get Hasselbeck back from injury. And Arizona? They had no right winning that game on Monday and wouldn't have if SF wasn't completely inept in managing the clock. I'm calling for the upset because it's up here in the rainy northwest.

Bucs over Vikings - Tampa is going to have to find some way to slow down Adrian Peterson here. If they can, I don't give any chance to Gus Frerotte to beat them on his own. It occurs to me that I'd like to pick the NFC North to lose every game, but I can't since the Bears and Packers are playing each other.

Redskins over Cowboys - Even if Romo can go, his throws can't possibly have everything on them with the still not completely recovered busted finger. Dallas' leaky offensive line won't give him a lot time to shake the rust off either.

Panthers over Lions - unfortunately for Detroit, they come up against another team who played a lousy game last Sunday and should be out for redemption. Moving to 0-10, the Lions will further enhance their position as the laughingstock of the league.

Titans over Jaguars - After facing the Bengals and the Lions, Jacksonville cannot possibly be prepared to face a team as strong as Tennessee this week. The Jags are struggling to run the ball and the Titans aren't going to make things any easier for them. Obviously it's tough to remain undefeated, but I have a hard time calling for the upset here.

Bills over Browns - This could be a real stinker of a Monday Night game. Buffalo will look for some redemption after losing to their entire division and Cleveland has given up 71 points in the last two weeks. I think Buffalo will get back on track, and with upcoming games against the Chiefs and Niners, that could mean 8-4 going into the last four weeks.

One final note for this post is that the Red Wings got back to winning last night with a 4-3 victory in Tampa. It's good to see them win, but it's upsetting to see them give up another three goals again. Of interest to me though, were the comments from a few of the guys after Tuesday's loss that the league seems to be giving 5 on 3 advantages to a team that goes down by three goals at every opportunity this year. Everyone loves a good conspiracy theory and I don't buy into them much, but those sure were two ticky-tack calls half way through the third period and it didn't get paid back when Staal put the same kind of hook on Datsyuk in OT. Not saying it was all the refs fault, but the zebras sure didn't hurt Pittsburgh's chances to win.