Half Way There

With today's debacle against the Titans, Detroit has moved within four games of the infamous first ever 0-16 season, and finishing the season on the road against Peyton and the Colts, at home against the high flying Saints offense, and at Green Bay where Detroit hasn't won in 17 years, I think that next week's game against the Vikings is the Lions only hope. It's do or die time.

But how bad is 0-16, really? Sure, no one has ever done it. But the league has only played 16 games in a season for 30 years. Back in 1976, the expansion Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 0-14 for the imperfectly perfect season. Detroit is only going to add two to that. How many more consecutive losses did Tampa suffer? Twelve! That's right. The Bucs started that '77 season 0-12 before winning their last two to break the 26 game losing skid. So going back to last year's season ending loss for the Lions, they've only now lost 13 straight. That's just half way to infamy!

Does anyone else see some irony though in Detroit's preseason record this year? They were 4-0 against the Giants, Bengals, Browns, and Bills! Just enough to give all of us so much false hope.

Turkey Bowls

Turkey Day is upon us! Unfortunately for those of us north of the border, we don't get to share in the trytophan fueled festivities, but I will hopefully have some opportunity to watch some football. Especially my lovable losers in Detroit!

But who will win the Thanksgiving games? Here are my thoughts:

Titans over Lions - Obviously. Tennessee coming off their first loss are going to be anxious to get back on track. This one could be ugly early.

Cowboys over Seahawks - Dallas shouldn't have much trouble taking care of the boys from up here in the Northwest. Seattle has been lousy this year and Dallas is finding their stride again as the injuries heal.

Cardinals over Eagles - Philly has been so bad the last two weeks that I almost have to believe that McNabb will bounce back. I'm a little worried about Arizona traveling so far on the short week. However, I don't think any of that is enough to stop the Cards from taking this one tomorrow night.

So enjoy your turkey folks! I'll sit here at work jealous and watch the scores tick by on the internet!

Lions, Tigers and Bears, Oh My!

In Lions news, Detroit jumped out to a 17-0 first quarter lead yesterday and were well on their way to pulling the upset and getting one in the W column. Of course, we all know what happened next. Tampa put 5 TD's on the board in just 18 minutes of play and the Leos proved true to form. This team clearly has no idea how to win. It's a good thing that the national audience will only have to be exposed to them once this year - this Thursday when the Titans show up to kick them to the curb.

In Tiger news, the poor guy got dropped by Buick today. It seems that, wisely, GM has finally figured out that every million they pay to have their name on Mr. Woods's golf bag is one mil closer to Chapter 11. Undoubtedly, there will be many companies clamoring for the right to throw their name on El Tigre's bag, but it may not add up to the reported $7 M a year that he's been receiving from Buick. How is he going to get by having to support that second baby he and his supermodel wife are having! It's not like he can fall back on actual earnings right now.

Finally, in Bears news, Dr. Jeckyl will see you now. The Bears's defense, in the past three weeks, has given up 20 yards, 200 yards, and 14 yards rushing against Tennessee, Green Bay, and St. Louis respectively. How does a defense hold two teams to a combined 34 rushing yards, and then get gashed for 200 by a divisional rival who they have to beat to get into the playoffs?! Even better, if Green Bay wins tonight, there will be a three way tie between Chicago, Minnesota, and the Pack for the NFC North lead and a playoff berth. Since none of them are likely to get a wild card, I look at the Vikes and Packers holding a one game advantage over Chicago because they each still have another game against the Lions, whereas the Bears have used up their two free wins for the year!

NFL Week 12

Here we are again with another weekend approaching. Last night's game worked out fine with the Steelers taking care of business as expected. But far more exciting last night, how about those Wolverines?! No, not the football ones ... they still suck. I'm talking about the Michigan basketball team! The one not even listed in the 65 teams projected to dance in March in last week's SI College Basketball Preview issue. They pulled off the upset of No. 4 UCLA at Madison Square Gardens last night! I know it's just a start and they won't likely be able to keep this up and contend for the Big Ten title with Purdue and Michigan State heavily favoured, but they're obviously doing something right in Ann Arbor this year and hopefully it's just a sign of good things to come for a program that hasn't been able to recover from the NCAA sanctions caused by the Fab Five more than a decade ago.

All right ... enough basketball. On we go with the picks for week 12 ...

Falcons over Panthers - Not totally convinced on this one. But I don't think Carolina will have such an easy time running it down the throats of Atlanta as they had running on Detroit. Add the fact that Carolina's passing attack was just dreadful against both Detroit and Oakland the last two weeks and I'll take Atlanta in an upset.

Browns over Texans - Brady Quinn looked pretty good Monday night and Houston can't win on the road. I'm a bit worried about Quinn's broken finger, but not worried enough to pick Houston to get the job done.

Cowboys over Niners - This one should be a piece of cake for Dallas.

Bucs over Lions - Another obviously easy pick. Bring on 0-11 for their nationally telecast Thanksgiving game!

Titans over Jets - It'll definitely be a stiff test for Tennessee. However, with NY coming off such a big emotional win over the Pats, I think this game might be hangover time for Favre and the boys.

Bills over Chiefs - I can't believe how much Buffalo has sucked since the 4-0 start. That said, Kansas City is simply terrible and with the Bills' schedule, they have to still think they've got a shot at the playoffs if they take care of business.

Bears over Rams - what to make of Chicago? Gave up 20 yards rushing to Tennessee and followed it up with 200 against GB. Which team will show up this week? I think the one good enough to beat up on the wounded Rams.

Patriots over Dolphins - must win games for both teams. NE got beat last week because their D couldn't handle Brett having a perfect game. With three extra days to gameplan and memories of getting embarrassed by the Fins earlier this year, I can't figure out why New England is a two point dog in Vegas.

Jags over Vikings - I still think Jacksonville is better than their record. Unfortunately for them, the record is what it is and even with getting to feast on three more NFC North teams, they're not going to get into the playoffs without a miracle. But beating the Vikes is step one for a team that has to keep playing hard to have any hope.

Ravens over Eagles - Donovan didn't know that OT ended after one quarter? How is that possible? How could a veteran professional QB not know that? How could they play so crappy against the Bengals? So many questions.

Broncos over Raiders - I still don't know how the Raiders won a couple of games this season. They seem every bit as terrible as the Lions right now.

Giants over Cardinals - this is a tough call. The last two times Warner was involved in Giants vs Cards games, he was on the losing side, first with NY, then with Arizona. I think he's going to lose again because NY will put enough pressure on him that he can't rack up the 300+ yards he's been passing for every week.

Redskins over Seahawks - how bad is football in the Northwest? The 2-8 Seahawks are the most exciting option as the Apple Cup features 0-10 Washington against 1-10 Washington State on Saturday!

Colts over Chargers - In Peyton I trust. I'm a little worried that San Diego has made visiting QB's look terrible the last four home games, but I think Manning can overcome that. What I can't figure out is why the Chargers look so much better on paper than on the field this year.

Packers over Saints - New Orleans simply can't string two wins together. Brees would be the unquestioned MVP with the passing yards he's racking up if only his defense could give him a bit of support so they could crack .500.

Enjoy the weekend! It's now time to pray for a second UM miracle at the Horseshoe tomorrow. It pains me to see a senior class at Michigan go their entire careers without beating Ohio State. I hope things shape up under Rich Rod the way they've started to for the basketball team under Beilein! After all, they brought both coaches in from West Virginia ... Beilein has just had a one year head start.

NFL Thursday Nighter

With the Thursday night game just a day away, I thought I would chime in on it with time to spare.

The Steelers and Bengals both had very interesting finishes to their games last weekend. Troy Polamalu of Pittsburgh got completely jobbed by the officials, robbing him of a rightful touchdown for his stats. While the mistake didn't cost Pittsburgh the game (they still won 11-10, the only 11-10 final ever in the NFL), all the talk is that it could have lasting implications since point differential factors into playoff tiebreakers. What I haven't heard anything about is how it might affect Polamalu in his next contract negotiations. These guys are always using every stat they can to bolster their earning potential. How is he going to feel about getting ripped off of a defensive touchdown? Those types of plays are huge and they're what get you the big bucks!

In Cincinnati's case, the finish was even more bizarre. Capitalizing on a horrendous game played by Donovan "I didn't know a game could end in a tie" McNabb, the Bengals managed to have a shot to win in overtime, but the 47 yard field goal with 7 tics left missed. The game ended in that tie and half the Eagles team was left to admitting that they don't know the rules of the game they get paid millions of dollars to play for a living. That's kind of like the SEC (the stock market watchdog one, not the college football conference) saying "we didn't really know how all these derivatives worked, so we decided not to regulate them" only to have it all blow up in their face. Wait ... that happened too? Never mind.

So what do I see happening tomorrow night on short rest? Well, the Steelers, even having not played well still did get their W and they are clearly a better team here. The Bengals got a half W that they didn't deserve. Pittsburgh already beat up on the Bengals in Cincinnati a month ago, so I like the Steelers by 8 at the Ketchup Bottle.

Another inept defensive record

More record setting for an offense facing Detroit's D this weekend. The Panthers rushed for 264 yards at a rate of 8.3 yards per carry. Yeah ... you read that right, 8.3!! They almost averaged a first down every time one of their running backs touched the ball. Could the Lions possibly suck any worse? We'll find out soon ... just 6 more losses to be the first 0-16 team ever!

And not to pile on or anything, but you've got to feel bad for Jason Hanson. This guy is one of the best kickers ever. He moved into eight place all time in points scored by kicking a 56 yard field goal on Sunday. He's only missed one field goal all year. He's 6 out of 6 from 50 yards or more. And he's been performing this well with the Lions for 17 years!! That has for to feel like 17 long, torturous years playing in the football wasteland.

NFL Week 11 and NHL Conspiracy Theories

It was a fantastic game last night, even if my pick turned out wrong. Favre took care of the ball better than I said he would. Belichick's boys got completely outschemed on defense and couldn't come up with key stops when the Jets stopped playing not to lose and started playing to win in the fourth quarter and OT. And despite last minute heroics from Cassel and finally a big play from Moss, New England simply made too many costly mistakes (dropped balls, dumb penalties, gave up kickoff return for TD) to come away with a W. I think both of these teams have some fundamental flaws on defense right now, but they're operating awfully well on the other side of the ball. With both teams having some very winable games down the stretch, a repeat of last night in the playoffs could be something to look forward to!

And now for the rest of my thoughts on the games this weekend. I feel like there are a lot of pretty straightforward picks, so I'm probably going to get trounced by upsets. But here we go anyways ...

Falcons over Broncos - Every week I wait for Matt Ryan and this young Falcons team to crash back to earth and every week they prove me wrong. I'll take them and hope for the best against a very flawed Broncos team.

Eagles over Bengals - The Bengals have lost coming out of their bye seemingly every year for the last decade. Philly played a close one against the Giants last week and is without question the better team here. They should win easily.

Bears over Packers - The QB situation in Chicago is still a question mark this week, but Green Bay just played so terribly against Minnesota last week that I can't overlook it. They should be well motivated here, but I like the Bears to get a boost out of having hung so tough against the unbeaten Titans last Sunday. Bears in a close one.

Colts over Texans - Peyton is finally in a groove and Houston can't seem to win on the road, so this pick doesn't seem too hard. Indy has tended to make life difficult this year though and they didn't deserve to win the first matchup between the two this year. It could be close, but I can't go against Peyton at home.

Saints over Chiefs - I really want to pick KC here. New Orleans has been completely unpredictable with Brees putting up passing records but still failing to win and the Chiefs have been right in their last couple of games with chances to win in the final moments. But still, it's the 1-8 Chiefs and I can't overlook the fact that they just can't seem to get it done.

Dolphins over Raiders - How did Oakland get two wins this year? And Detroit can't get one? Bizarre ... too bad Oakland isn't on the Lions' schedule. Give this one to Miami in a walk.

Giants over Ravens - Just like with the Falcons and Matt Ryan, I keep waiting for reality to set in for the rookie QB - rookie coach tandem in Baltimore. Yet every week they show up and do enough to win with the defense playing exceptionally. I think they might meet their match this week though with NY forcing a turnover or two that will change the game.

Steelers over Chargers - I never would have believed that San Diego would struggle so badly to be a .500 team this year. What's even harder to believe is that it's very conceivable for both them and Denver to enter week 17 against each other at 7-8, playing for the division title and a playoff berth. That's one sad division.

49ers over Rams - Mike Singletary gets his first win here! The Rams continue to suck. Nobody cares. Let's move on.

Seahawks over Cardinals - Yes, I know. This pick is asking for trouble. 2-7 to beat 6-3 you ask? Yup. Seattle would have won last week with a moderately adequate performance from the QB and this week they get Hasselbeck back from injury. And Arizona? They had no right winning that game on Monday and wouldn't have if SF wasn't completely inept in managing the clock. I'm calling for the upset because it's up here in the rainy northwest.

Bucs over Vikings - Tampa is going to have to find some way to slow down Adrian Peterson here. If they can, I don't give any chance to Gus Frerotte to beat them on his own. It occurs to me that I'd like to pick the NFC North to lose every game, but I can't since the Bears and Packers are playing each other.

Redskins over Cowboys - Even if Romo can go, his throws can't possibly have everything on them with the still not completely recovered busted finger. Dallas' leaky offensive line won't give him a lot time to shake the rust off either.

Panthers over Lions - unfortunately for Detroit, they come up against another team who played a lousy game last Sunday and should be out for redemption. Moving to 0-10, the Lions will further enhance their position as the laughingstock of the league.

Titans over Jaguars - After facing the Bengals and the Lions, Jacksonville cannot possibly be prepared to face a team as strong as Tennessee this week. The Jags are struggling to run the ball and the Titans aren't going to make things any easier for them. Obviously it's tough to remain undefeated, but I have a hard time calling for the upset here.

Bills over Browns - This could be a real stinker of a Monday Night game. Buffalo will look for some redemption after losing to their entire division and Cleveland has given up 71 points in the last two weeks. I think Buffalo will get back on track, and with upcoming games against the Chiefs and Niners, that could mean 8-4 going into the last four weeks.

One final note for this post is that the Red Wings got back to winning last night with a 4-3 victory in Tampa. It's good to see them win, but it's upsetting to see them give up another three goals again. Of interest to me though, were the comments from a few of the guys after Tuesday's loss that the league seems to be giving 5 on 3 advantages to a team that goes down by three goals at every opportunity this year. Everyone loves a good conspiracy theory and I don't buy into them much, but those sure were two ticky-tack calls half way through the third period and it didn't get paid back when Staal put the same kind of hook on Datsyuk in OT. Not saying it was all the refs fault, but the zebras sure didn't hurt Pittsburgh's chances to win.

Toughest Pick in Week 11

Huge, huge game tonight in Foxborough. Jets - Pats. Identical records. Same on the road and at home. Same versus the AFC and NFC. Same versus the division. There's nothing that separates these teams in the standings right now. The Jets have a slight edge in passing yards and TD's, but also have more picks. The Pats have the slight edge on the ground. The defenses are giving up within 1 yard per game of each other, thought the Pats have a field goal lead in points allowed. What I'm getting at, is there just isn't any differentiation here.

So how do you pick a winner? New England should have some advantage because they're at home, but they've also got a lot of injuries. The Jets should have some advantage because they've built their entire team around finally knocking the Patriots off the top of the division, but all the money in the world on free agents hasn't been able to reign Favre back into the effective dink and dunk playmaking he produced in GB last year. He's still too prone to turnovers. But it's still Favre. He can certainly make magic happen. Just check out their 40-0 halftime lead against the Rams last week!

It should be the Jets, right? I mean, if they don't win, the Jets faithful are going to jump off a bridge! And we can't expect Matt Cassel to win on this big a stage, can we? I don't know ... would you put your money up against Belichick and his schemes? No, me neither. Not in New England. I have to go with the Pats. Can I bet your money instead of my own?

Wings - Pens, the Rematch

It was a crazy hockey game in Detroit tonight. While the first 45 minutes of play were almost all dominated by Detroit, two chintzy penalty calls in a span of 6 seconds completely turned the tide. Pittsburgh scored on the 5 on 3 and then popped a bunch more when all of the momentum went their way. Finally, with the net empty, and eerily similar to game 5 of last year's finals, Staal netted another one to tie it up and send it to OT. Half way through overtime, Datsyuk turned the puck over (after Staal gave him a little uncalled hook) and the Pens scored again on the break the other way.

I would love to blame the refs for turning the momentum with two bad calls and then missing the one in OT, but no amount of bad calls should have resulted in the Wings giving up five goals in less than fifteen minutes of play. That performance was absolutely pathetic and had better act as a wake up call as they start another tough road trip. I trust Babcock to ride the guys for this one. It was a bad loss.

Pretty Solid Picks!

11 out of 13 wasn't too bad for the weekend, and if the refs hadn't screwed up the illegal forward pass call that went against the Packers for a safety yesterday, I'd have had 12 out 13! That's two pretty good weeks in a row now. Perhaps I'm starting to get a handle on how these games are going to play out. Or maybe I just got lucky.

Tonight's game shouldn't exactly be a monumental event with an average Arizona team playing a crappy San Francisco team. So I move my attention to tomorrow's Stanley Cup rematch with Detroit hosting the Penguins. Obviously it's a new season and at this early stage, it's difficult to draw many conclusions, but both teams seem to be playing well and poised for another deep run. The game should be another exciting one between the two. Hopefully the Red Wings can continue to give the city a bit of hope in the doom and gloom that otherwise surrounds it.

NFL Week 10

I guess I have to throw this out there before the game starts tonight. I don't have a lot of time, so I'll dive right in ...

Broncos over Browns - I'm actually really tempted to take the Browns here because their D has been solid the last couple weeks and because Denver has been so bad. But I don't see Brady Quinn winning his debut. There's already been too much winning from rookie QB's this year.

Falcons over Saints - speaking over those rookie QB's, I keep liking Matt Ryan more and more every week. I think they'll hang in tough against New Orleans' potent offense and escape with a win.

Titans over Bears - I can't imagine Chicago beating the last undefeated team. Just watch ... I'll be wrong again.

Jaguars over Lions - Jacksonville will definitely not be sleeping through this one like they slept through the game against Cincy last week.

Panthers over Raiders - how did Oakland win two games? Seriously! They had negative yards on offense at the end of the first half last week and only gained three first downs the whole game.

Dolphins over Seahawks - poor Seattle stinks pretty badly too. Miami should have no trouble getting this win at home.

Packers over Vikings - this game could be tight because it's in Minny, but I really like how tough Green Bay played against Tennessee last week. They should get this important win to surge ahead in the division.

Patriots over Bills - tough loss for New England last week, but I think Buffalo is showing their true colours and falling apart after that quick start. Cassel and Co. should light 'em up on Sunday.

Jets over Rams - St. Louis is falling back to normal after a couple wins under the new coach. I think Favre lights them up this week (though he'll probably hand them a few picks as well).

Giants over Eagles - How is Philly the betting favourite in this one? Haven't the Giants won just about every road game they've played for the last 12 months? Aren't they 7-1? Maybe it's a trap, but I like the G-men to keep rolling.

Steelers over Colts - That Pittsburgh defense was amazing making Monday night miserable for Washington. I think the Steelers will win, and win or lose, Peyton is going to get beat up at the Ketchup Bottle Sunday afternoon.

Chargers over Chiefs - San Diego should be well enough rested after the bye to beat up on Kansas City this week. I think San Diego will even win enough down the stretch to win their division. That's not saying much though since the rest of the division stinks.

Ravens over Texans - I have no idea who to pick here because I don't have a huge amount of confidence in Baltimore. However, Schaub is hurt and the last time Rossenfels played, he guided the collapse agains the Colts.

Cardinals over 49ers - This is a crappy Monday Night game. Arizona should absolutely destroy SF. It might be fun to watch what Mike Singletary is going to do next though.

Enjoy the game tonight!

Looking Ahead

So Washington's election record moves a little closer to 100% this week, with them losing and the incumbent party getting the boot. The election return was not a big surprise of course, but the Skins getting dominated so badly by the Steelers defense was not entirely expected. I'm a bit worried with Roethlisberger potentially out, but if Pittsburgh's D keeps playing that way, they can beat anyone.

I'm looking ahead with interest this week though, to Thanksgiving Thursday, and a potential matchup between an 11-0 Titans team and a 0-11 Lions team. Obviously, either team could blow their perfect (or very much imperfect) season before then, but the matchup would certainly provide a little bit of intrigue to what will otherwise be a totally uneventful game with the Lions' only national audience of the season. So, what needs to happen for us to get there?

Detroit has the Jags at home this week who shouldn't take them for granted because they just screwed up doing exactly that against Cincy last week. Then they go to Carolina who might be looking ahead to a tougher stretch of games against teams who are all currently at .500 or better. However, Detroit is so lousy on the road that I doubt they pick up a win even if the Panthers are looking ahead. Finally, Detroit will host Tampa with the chance to get to 0-11. The Bucs are on their bye this week and then face the Vikings at home, so they should be well rested going into Detroit and with them in a tight battle for their division, Gruden will have them playing hard. I put the odds of 0-11 for Detroit at about 85% with my only hesitation being some resurgence under new QB, Daunte Culpepper. Bringing in the new QB might be just the kick in the pants that the Lions need to pull of a surprise win or two before this season is out.

Tennessee has a tougher road to get to that Thanksgiving game still perfect though. They go into Chicago this week where I fully expect them to get the win. I mean really, the Bears almost lost to Detroit. Could they really be that tough? With Orton hurt now, I don't give the Bears much shot at winning until he comes back. Next week though, the Titans have to go into Jacksonville to face the most Jeckyl and Hyde team in the league. With the Jags be the crappy team who lost to the Bengals last week or will they get their running game going again and play like the pre-season Super Bowl pick that a lot of people thought they were? My guess is that this could be the one that trips Tennessee up. Finally, the Titans host the Jets in the final week before Thanksgiving. I think the Tennessee defense does a lot more damage to Brett Favre and his interception stats and they come through this one clean. So I'll put the odds on them staying perfect a little lower than Detroit ... say, 60%. The Jacksonville game is going to be the toughest, but the longer you stay perfect, the more every team will be gunning for you. They'll definitely be in tough through this stretch.

The only thing I can very confidently guarantee is that if the two teams meet at 0-11 and 11-0, you can tick those numbers forward to 12.

Weekend Fun

Another interesting weekend in sports, wrapped up with a great hockey game here in Van City last night.

I'll begin with the Lions, who after the Bengals win are now the only winless team in the NFL. After last year's 6-2 opening half of the season, Detroit is now 1-15 in their last 16 games with the only win being against fellow doormat Kansas City in a meaningless late December game. Detroit was marginally better this week and kept it close, as I predicted, with a big 23 point second quarter. Unfortunately, those were their only points and not enough to support such a lousy defense. There's a chance for that first win this coming week though as Detroit faces the Jacksonville team who just gave Cincinatti their first win of the year. however, if I were a betting man I would guess that the Cincy loss will act as a wake up call for the Jags and they'll take Detroit a lot more seriously than they may have otherwise.

As for the rest of my NFL picks, tonight's game finally gives me a shot at double digit correct picks for just the second time all season. I'm a little worried though. You'll recall that I picked the Skins. While I'd like to be right, I'm afraid of the political outcome that that result might bring. You see, Washington's final home game prior to an election has almost perfect correlation with predicting the outcome of the election. If the Skins win, the incumbent party wins. If the Skins lose, the incumbent party loses. This predictor is 17-1 all time. Clearly, the Obama faithful will be cheering for the Steelers tonight.

Finally, the Red Wings finished off their road trip with a solid victory here in Vancouver last night. Special teams did the trick with the Wings cashing in on the PP three times and killing off all seven penalties that they took. While I'm pleased with the win, especially against the local guys, I wasn't terribly impressed with their play last night. The seven penalty kills were too many by far and it meant that Osgood had to have one of his best games of the year for Detroit. There were brief flashes where Detroit looked dominant, but Vancouver played them tougher than I would have liked to see. That said, the Wings came out of a really tough West Coast road trip, with five games in just over a week, and went 3-1-1 for 7 out of 10 possible points. A few days off will do them some good now before hosting the Devils (possibly without Brodeur) and then a Stanley Cup Final rematch next Tuesday.