AFC Playoff Picture

The AFC playoff scenarios are not quite as complicated as those in the NFC because there are fewer teams still alive for more playoff spots. Heading into week 16 there are four teams vying for three spots. Pittsburgh and Cleveland are still battling for the division crown, while the loser of the division will battle with Jacksonville and Tennessee for the two wild card berths. Here's how it all rests:

Who Needs What?
Pittsburgh Steelers - If they win their games, they win the division. Simple as that. And with very winnable games against St. Louis and Baltimore, things look pretty good in Steeltown right now. As an added bonus, if they wind up tied with the Browns, they hold the divisional tiebreaker. If it comes down to tiebreakers for a wild card, they hold the upper hand against the Titans, but not the Jags. Bottom line, with one win, they're in.

Cleveland Browns - Two wins and they guarantee themselves at least a wild card berth. Games against the Bengals and the Niners make this look pretty promising. And while they don't hold the divisional tiebreaker against the Steelers, they do hold wild card tiebreakers over both Jacksonville and Tennessee, so even a single win will guarantee them a spot.

Jacksonville Jaguars - With Indy locking up the division title last week, the Jags are left hoping for a wild card spot that is almost certain. Either a single win by the Jags or a single loss by the Titans gets Jacksonville in at this point and with games remaining against Oakland and Houston, they will almost certainly clinch that berth shortly.

Tennessee Titans - The Titans are barely hanging on the their very slim playoff hopes right now. In order for Tennessee to get a wild card berth they need to win both of their remaining games (a tall order with week 17 against the Colts) and two of the three teams above to lose both of their remaining games. With Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Jacksonville all playing sub-500 teams the rest of the way, this sure doesn't seem likely.

What's Going to Happen?
With the games on tap this weekend, I see Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and Jacksonville all winning and dashing Tennessee's playoff hopes. In week 17 the Steelers and Browns will still have the division to play for so they won't be resting anyone and both will win again, sealing the division crown for Pittsburgh. Jacksonville will be resting up for the playoffs and will fall short against Houston, leaving both themselves and Cleveland ties at 11-5. Both with get wild card spots, but because of a better divisional record, Cleveland will get the #5 spot and play the Chargers while the Jaguars will face the Steelers. Of course, none of this matters because once the playoffs come, all of these teams will just be battling for the right to lose to the Patriots in their historic march to 19-0.