NFL Week 11 and NHL Conspiracy Theories

It was a fantastic game last night, even if my pick turned out wrong. Favre took care of the ball better than I said he would. Belichick's boys got completely outschemed on defense and couldn't come up with key stops when the Jets stopped playing not to lose and started playing to win in the fourth quarter and OT. And despite last minute heroics from Cassel and finally a big play from Moss, New England simply made too many costly mistakes (dropped balls, dumb penalties, gave up kickoff return for TD) to come away with a W. I think both of these teams have some fundamental flaws on defense right now, but they're operating awfully well on the other side of the ball. With both teams having some very winable games down the stretch, a repeat of last night in the playoffs could be something to look forward to!

And now for the rest of my thoughts on the games this weekend. I feel like there are a lot of pretty straightforward picks, so I'm probably going to get trounced by upsets. But here we go anyways ...

Falcons over Broncos - Every week I wait for Matt Ryan and this young Falcons team to crash back to earth and every week they prove me wrong. I'll take them and hope for the best against a very flawed Broncos team.

Eagles over Bengals - The Bengals have lost coming out of their bye seemingly every year for the last decade. Philly played a close one against the Giants last week and is without question the better team here. They should win easily.

Bears over Packers - The QB situation in Chicago is still a question mark this week, but Green Bay just played so terribly against Minnesota last week that I can't overlook it. They should be well motivated here, but I like the Bears to get a boost out of having hung so tough against the unbeaten Titans last Sunday. Bears in a close one.

Colts over Texans - Peyton is finally in a groove and Houston can't seem to win on the road, so this pick doesn't seem too hard. Indy has tended to make life difficult this year though and they didn't deserve to win the first matchup between the two this year. It could be close, but I can't go against Peyton at home.

Saints over Chiefs - I really want to pick KC here. New Orleans has been completely unpredictable with Brees putting up passing records but still failing to win and the Chiefs have been right in their last couple of games with chances to win in the final moments. But still, it's the 1-8 Chiefs and I can't overlook the fact that they just can't seem to get it done.

Dolphins over Raiders - How did Oakland get two wins this year? And Detroit can't get one? Bizarre ... too bad Oakland isn't on the Lions' schedule. Give this one to Miami in a walk.

Giants over Ravens - Just like with the Falcons and Matt Ryan, I keep waiting for reality to set in for the rookie QB - rookie coach tandem in Baltimore. Yet every week they show up and do enough to win with the defense playing exceptionally. I think they might meet their match this week though with NY forcing a turnover or two that will change the game.

Steelers over Chargers - I never would have believed that San Diego would struggle so badly to be a .500 team this year. What's even harder to believe is that it's very conceivable for both them and Denver to enter week 17 against each other at 7-8, playing for the division title and a playoff berth. That's one sad division.

49ers over Rams - Mike Singletary gets his first win here! The Rams continue to suck. Nobody cares. Let's move on.

Seahawks over Cardinals - Yes, I know. This pick is asking for trouble. 2-7 to beat 6-3 you ask? Yup. Seattle would have won last week with a moderately adequate performance from the QB and this week they get Hasselbeck back from injury. And Arizona? They had no right winning that game on Monday and wouldn't have if SF wasn't completely inept in managing the clock. I'm calling for the upset because it's up here in the rainy northwest.

Bucs over Vikings - Tampa is going to have to find some way to slow down Adrian Peterson here. If they can, I don't give any chance to Gus Frerotte to beat them on his own. It occurs to me that I'd like to pick the NFC North to lose every game, but I can't since the Bears and Packers are playing each other.

Redskins over Cowboys - Even if Romo can go, his throws can't possibly have everything on them with the still not completely recovered busted finger. Dallas' leaky offensive line won't give him a lot time to shake the rust off either.

Panthers over Lions - unfortunately for Detroit, they come up against another team who played a lousy game last Sunday and should be out for redemption. Moving to 0-10, the Lions will further enhance their position as the laughingstock of the league.

Titans over Jaguars - After facing the Bengals and the Lions, Jacksonville cannot possibly be prepared to face a team as strong as Tennessee this week. The Jags are struggling to run the ball and the Titans aren't going to make things any easier for them. Obviously it's tough to remain undefeated, but I have a hard time calling for the upset here.

Bills over Browns - This could be a real stinker of a Monday Night game. Buffalo will look for some redemption after losing to their entire division and Cleveland has given up 71 points in the last two weeks. I think Buffalo will get back on track, and with upcoming games against the Chiefs and Niners, that could mean 8-4 going into the last four weeks.

One final note for this post is that the Red Wings got back to winning last night with a 4-3 victory in Tampa. It's good to see them win, but it's upsetting to see them give up another three goals again. Of interest to me though, were the comments from a few of the guys after Tuesday's loss that the league seems to be giving 5 on 3 advantages to a team that goes down by three goals at every opportunity this year. Everyone loves a good conspiracy theory and I don't buy into them much, but those sure were two ticky-tack calls half way through the third period and it didn't get paid back when Staal put the same kind of hook on Datsyuk in OT. Not saying it was all the refs fault, but the zebras sure didn't hurt Pittsburgh's chances to win.

Toughest Pick in Week 11

Huge, huge game tonight in Foxborough. Jets - Pats. Identical records. Same on the road and at home. Same versus the AFC and NFC. Same versus the division. There's nothing that separates these teams in the standings right now. The Jets have a slight edge in passing yards and TD's, but also have more picks. The Pats have the slight edge on the ground. The defenses are giving up within 1 yard per game of each other, thought the Pats have a field goal lead in points allowed. What I'm getting at, is there just isn't any differentiation here.

So how do you pick a winner? New England should have some advantage because they're at home, but they've also got a lot of injuries. The Jets should have some advantage because they've built their entire team around finally knocking the Patriots off the top of the division, but all the money in the world on free agents hasn't been able to reign Favre back into the effective dink and dunk playmaking he produced in GB last year. He's still too prone to turnovers. But it's still Favre. He can certainly make magic happen. Just check out their 40-0 halftime lead against the Rams last week!

It should be the Jets, right? I mean, if they don't win, the Jets faithful are going to jump off a bridge! And we can't expect Matt Cassel to win on this big a stage, can we? I don't know ... would you put your money up against Belichick and his schemes? No, me neither. Not in New England. I have to go with the Pats. Can I bet your money instead of my own?

Wings - Pens, the Rematch

It was a crazy hockey game in Detroit tonight. While the first 45 minutes of play were almost all dominated by Detroit, two chintzy penalty calls in a span of 6 seconds completely turned the tide. Pittsburgh scored on the 5 on 3 and then popped a bunch more when all of the momentum went their way. Finally, with the net empty, and eerily similar to game 5 of last year's finals, Staal netted another one to tie it up and send it to OT. Half way through overtime, Datsyuk turned the puck over (after Staal gave him a little uncalled hook) and the Pens scored again on the break the other way.

I would love to blame the refs for turning the momentum with two bad calls and then missing the one in OT, but no amount of bad calls should have resulted in the Wings giving up five goals in less than fifteen minutes of play. That performance was absolutely pathetic and had better act as a wake up call as they start another tough road trip. I trust Babcock to ride the guys for this one. It was a bad loss.

Pretty Solid Picks!

11 out of 13 wasn't too bad for the weekend, and if the refs hadn't screwed up the illegal forward pass call that went against the Packers for a safety yesterday, I'd have had 12 out 13! That's two pretty good weeks in a row now. Perhaps I'm starting to get a handle on how these games are going to play out. Or maybe I just got lucky.

Tonight's game shouldn't exactly be a monumental event with an average Arizona team playing a crappy San Francisco team. So I move my attention to tomorrow's Stanley Cup rematch with Detroit hosting the Penguins. Obviously it's a new season and at this early stage, it's difficult to draw many conclusions, but both teams seem to be playing well and poised for another deep run. The game should be another exciting one between the two. Hopefully the Red Wings can continue to give the city a bit of hope in the doom and gloom that otherwise surrounds it.

NFL Week 10

I guess I have to throw this out there before the game starts tonight. I don't have a lot of time, so I'll dive right in ...

Broncos over Browns - I'm actually really tempted to take the Browns here because their D has been solid the last couple weeks and because Denver has been so bad. But I don't see Brady Quinn winning his debut. There's already been too much winning from rookie QB's this year.

Falcons over Saints - speaking over those rookie QB's, I keep liking Matt Ryan more and more every week. I think they'll hang in tough against New Orleans' potent offense and escape with a win.

Titans over Bears - I can't imagine Chicago beating the last undefeated team. Just watch ... I'll be wrong again.

Jaguars over Lions - Jacksonville will definitely not be sleeping through this one like they slept through the game against Cincy last week.

Panthers over Raiders - how did Oakland win two games? Seriously! They had negative yards on offense at the end of the first half last week and only gained three first downs the whole game.

Dolphins over Seahawks - poor Seattle stinks pretty badly too. Miami should have no trouble getting this win at home.

Packers over Vikings - this game could be tight because it's in Minny, but I really like how tough Green Bay played against Tennessee last week. They should get this important win to surge ahead in the division.

Patriots over Bills - tough loss for New England last week, but I think Buffalo is showing their true colours and falling apart after that quick start. Cassel and Co. should light 'em up on Sunday.

Jets over Rams - St. Louis is falling back to normal after a couple wins under the new coach. I think Favre lights them up this week (though he'll probably hand them a few picks as well).

Giants over Eagles - How is Philly the betting favourite in this one? Haven't the Giants won just about every road game they've played for the last 12 months? Aren't they 7-1? Maybe it's a trap, but I like the G-men to keep rolling.

Steelers over Colts - That Pittsburgh defense was amazing making Monday night miserable for Washington. I think the Steelers will win, and win or lose, Peyton is going to get beat up at the Ketchup Bottle Sunday afternoon.

Chargers over Chiefs - San Diego should be well enough rested after the bye to beat up on Kansas City this week. I think San Diego will even win enough down the stretch to win their division. That's not saying much though since the rest of the division stinks.

Ravens over Texans - I have no idea who to pick here because I don't have a huge amount of confidence in Baltimore. However, Schaub is hurt and the last time Rossenfels played, he guided the collapse agains the Colts.

Cardinals over 49ers - This is a crappy Monday Night game. Arizona should absolutely destroy SF. It might be fun to watch what Mike Singletary is going to do next though.

Enjoy the game tonight!

Looking Ahead

So Washington's election record moves a little closer to 100% this week, with them losing and the incumbent party getting the boot. The election return was not a big surprise of course, but the Skins getting dominated so badly by the Steelers defense was not entirely expected. I'm a bit worried with Roethlisberger potentially out, but if Pittsburgh's D keeps playing that way, they can beat anyone.

I'm looking ahead with interest this week though, to Thanksgiving Thursday, and a potential matchup between an 11-0 Titans team and a 0-11 Lions team. Obviously, either team could blow their perfect (or very much imperfect) season before then, but the matchup would certainly provide a little bit of intrigue to what will otherwise be a totally uneventful game with the Lions' only national audience of the season. So, what needs to happen for us to get there?

Detroit has the Jags at home this week who shouldn't take them for granted because they just screwed up doing exactly that against Cincy last week. Then they go to Carolina who might be looking ahead to a tougher stretch of games against teams who are all currently at .500 or better. However, Detroit is so lousy on the road that I doubt they pick up a win even if the Panthers are looking ahead. Finally, Detroit will host Tampa with the chance to get to 0-11. The Bucs are on their bye this week and then face the Vikings at home, so they should be well rested going into Detroit and with them in a tight battle for their division, Gruden will have them playing hard. I put the odds of 0-11 for Detroit at about 85% with my only hesitation being some resurgence under new QB, Daunte Culpepper. Bringing in the new QB might be just the kick in the pants that the Lions need to pull of a surprise win or two before this season is out.

Tennessee has a tougher road to get to that Thanksgiving game still perfect though. They go into Chicago this week where I fully expect them to get the win. I mean really, the Bears almost lost to Detroit. Could they really be that tough? With Orton hurt now, I don't give the Bears much shot at winning until he comes back. Next week though, the Titans have to go into Jacksonville to face the most Jeckyl and Hyde team in the league. With the Jags be the crappy team who lost to the Bengals last week or will they get their running game going again and play like the pre-season Super Bowl pick that a lot of people thought they were? My guess is that this could be the one that trips Tennessee up. Finally, the Titans host the Jets in the final week before Thanksgiving. I think the Tennessee defense does a lot more damage to Brett Favre and his interception stats and they come through this one clean. So I'll put the odds on them staying perfect a little lower than Detroit ... say, 60%. The Jacksonville game is going to be the toughest, but the longer you stay perfect, the more every team will be gunning for you. They'll definitely be in tough through this stretch.

The only thing I can very confidently guarantee is that if the two teams meet at 0-11 and 11-0, you can tick those numbers forward to 12.

Weekend Fun

Another interesting weekend in sports, wrapped up with a great hockey game here in Van City last night.

I'll begin with the Lions, who after the Bengals win are now the only winless team in the NFL. After last year's 6-2 opening half of the season, Detroit is now 1-15 in their last 16 games with the only win being against fellow doormat Kansas City in a meaningless late December game. Detroit was marginally better this week and kept it close, as I predicted, with a big 23 point second quarter. Unfortunately, those were their only points and not enough to support such a lousy defense. There's a chance for that first win this coming week though as Detroit faces the Jacksonville team who just gave Cincinatti their first win of the year. however, if I were a betting man I would guess that the Cincy loss will act as a wake up call for the Jags and they'll take Detroit a lot more seriously than they may have otherwise.

As for the rest of my NFL picks, tonight's game finally gives me a shot at double digit correct picks for just the second time all season. I'm a little worried though. You'll recall that I picked the Skins. While I'd like to be right, I'm afraid of the political outcome that that result might bring. You see, Washington's final home game prior to an election has almost perfect correlation with predicting the outcome of the election. If the Skins win, the incumbent party wins. If the Skins lose, the incumbent party loses. This predictor is 17-1 all time. Clearly, the Obama faithful will be cheering for the Steelers tonight.

Finally, the Red Wings finished off their road trip with a solid victory here in Vancouver last night. Special teams did the trick with the Wings cashing in on the PP three times and killing off all seven penalties that they took. While I'm pleased with the win, especially against the local guys, I wasn't terribly impressed with their play last night. The seven penalty kills were too many by far and it meant that Osgood had to have one of his best games of the year for Detroit. There were brief flashes where Detroit looked dominant, but Vancouver played them tougher than I would have liked to see. That said, the Wings came out of a really tough West Coast road trip, with five games in just over a week, and went 3-1-1 for 7 out of 10 possible points. A few days off will do them some good now before hosting the Devils (possibly without Brodeur) and then a Stanley Cup Final rematch next Tuesday.

NFL Week 9

Another slate of games approaches and I can't help but feel that perhaps I'm just not meant to get all of these picks right. At least I have one constant ... the Lions will lose. It's almost comforting.

Bills over Jets - call it a hunch, but I think Favre is hurting. Seeing the replays of some of the picks the last couple weeks, it just doesn't look he's got the same velocity we're used to seeing from him. Buffalo is going to bounce back from a bad loss at home.

Bears over Lions - Another record passing day for Kyle Orton? Probably not ... he already set his career high against the Leos earlier this year. Detroit will keep this one closer, but not close enough.

Jaguars over Bengals - Cincinnati is the only team in the league I think Detroit could beat right now and they're facing a Jags team who are going to be hungry after getting totally stuffed on the run last week.

Ravens over Browns - Cleveland is on a bit of a roll lately and showing some of the promise that a lot of folks believed they had before the year started. I'm not completely confident on this pick, I just think that Baltimore is good enough to hold them off.

Titans over Packers - Tennessee was very impressive in playing it out Monday night, completely dominating the second half against Indy. There's no glitz or glamour to this team, just tough, hard nosed football being played on both sides of the ball.

Bucs over Chiefs - Tampa disappointed me last week, but even if they're not as good as I thought, they're plenty good enough to beat Kansas City. KC is on the third or fourth string QB after all.

Cards over Rams - This could be the first Western team winning a game travelling east (if you don't count NO winning in London ... but someone had to win that one!). The Rams have stepped up under the new coach, but I think Warner has a big day back in St. Lou.

Vikings over Texans - Houston can't win on the road. They just haven't got it figured out. Minnesota will be desperate to keep up with the Bears in the division and will have enough in them to win this one.

Broncos over Dolphins - I don't know what to make of Denver. They're a talented offensive team with not much going well on the other side of the ball. I think they have enough fire power to get past Miami though.

Falcons over Raiders - Matty Ice goes into the Black Hole and comes out a victor! It helps that the Raiders only two wins were total gifts.

Giants over Cowboys - When Romo went down with the busted pinky, Dallas had to be hoping to get through the Tampa / NY games even. They beat Tampa last week which is going to lead to a little let down against a Giants team that seems to be getting better each week.

Eagles over Seahawks - Seattle's twelfth man is not enough. Can they put out thirteen or fourteen? No? Okay then ... not enough fire power to win games for poor Mike Holmgren who's got to put up with this team as his last before "retirement".

Patriots over Colts - Game of the week! What's that? No Brady? Peyton's playing hurt? Okay then, maybe this one isn't the Sunday Nighter NBC was hoping for. It should still be a good game and Matt Cassel will do just enough to pick on a depleted Indy defense.

Redskins over Steelers - Pittsburgh is just too beat up right now and Washington is going to come out and lay another physical beating on them. The Skins almost got caught last week looking ahead, but still came away with the win in Detroit. They'll be better this game.

ISU World Cup

After another miserable round of predictions this past weekend, I'm going to ignore football for this post and focus on the event I got to watch live on Sunday.

The ISU brought their World Cup Short Track Speed Skating circuit through town in a test event for the Olympics and tickets were not as popular as I expected. I was able, with just a few days of notice, to score a pair of seats pretty close to the ice for just $20 each! I thought this was a great vantage point to judge the speed and aggression of the skaters heading through the turns.

The event started with the quaterfinals of the men's and women's 500 m and 1,000 m races. This being my first opportunity ever to watch speed skating live, I was a bit confused by several aspects of the event that you don't actually get to see on TV every four years when they cover this during the Olympics. First of all, there are actually five tracks that get used. The little black markers on the ice that delineate the turn get moved for each heat to make sure that the ice is smooth and consistent. When they move the track, they also pour several gallons of water onto the ice and squeegee it into the ruts that get carved out by the skaters' blades. By the time they've gone through the five tracks, they can go back to the first and the water will have had time to freeze and create a new smooth, consistent surface for the skaters again. My next question, of course, was about the distance staying accurate with the track changing every heat, but they take care of that with five separate start lines for each corresponding loop. The five or six guys who take care of maintaining the track throughout the event get a serious workout skating around fixing the ice and the track all day!

After the quarterfinal heats, they cleaned the ice for real and prepared for the semifinals of the same four events. It was interesting to watch the strategies change from the 500 m races to the 1,000 m races. In the 500, it was essentially an all out sprint where the first person into the first turn more often than not came away with the victory. The 1,000 involved a lot more of the skaters playing cat and mouse with each other, getting through the first 2/3 of the distance without anyone really pushing it and waiting for someone to make the first move. Once the passes started happening, it was fast and wild to the finish.

The semifinal races generally each sent two skaters to the A final and two to the B final. From what I recall, B finals exist in case there are mass disqualifications in the A final, leading to the medals rolling down. I learned at the event that it's the responsibility of the skater trying to make a pass to avoid contact and it's that contact that leads to the DQ's. What I came to gather from watching though, is that some contact is clearly allowed. In fact, as the two Korean skaters in one of the 500 m semis squeezed a Canadian right out of the picture in the final turn, my outraged yelling for a DQ was met with inaction from the judges, but unkind reaction from the dozens of Koreans parked in the seats in front of me. Oops.

This clip that I found on YouTube was taken during the preliminaries on Friday or Saturday, but shows a pretty exciting race from World Record holder, and Canadian, Michael Gilday ...



The finals were pretty exciting with several Canadians spread through the races. None of them came up with golds, but Gilday got a silver in the men's 1,000, Remi Beaulieu took bronze in the same, Francois Termblay took silver in the men's 500, and Marianne St. Gelais won her first world cup medal, a silver in the women's 500 m. Looking through the list of people on the Candian team, it was clear that I am already way over the hill to take up short track speed skating, and apparently not french enough either!

After the individual finals were all complete, they really ramped up the excitement with the relay finals. It began with the women's 3,000 m relay which had five teams in the final due to an advancement due to DQ in the semis. This meant that there would be 20 skaters on the ice, all interchanging every lap and a half, trying to stay out of each other's way but not give any room for a pass. As the teams started to spread out a little it became dizzying just trying to watch and difficult to keep track. The excitement grew and the tight race eventually went to the Chinese over the Koreans and the third place Canadians. The men's 5,000 m relay was similarly dizzying, though with four fewer guys on the ice, a little easier to keep track of. The Canadians pushed extremely hard, but got edged out in the end by the Americans by about 0.8 seconds.

It was a great new experience to see live and something I would definitely recommend if you ever get a chance. I know I'll be trying to get tickets again when they come back to town, whether that be for another World Cup race, or the Olympics in 2010.

What to Watch?

Another weekend is upon us and I seek to determine the most exciting events to watch! Will it be baseball? Well, it is the World Series ... but there's threat of a rainout tomorrow and the series can't end this weekend regardless, so I'll have to say no. Hockey? There's an excellent slate of games Saturday night with every team in the league in action! But I still don't think that's it. NFL? There are a couple of intriguing games to watch including whether Europe will see a decent game between the Saints and the Chargers in London, and whether Pittsburgh or NY can show dominance between AFC and NFC leaders. Still though, neither of these games have huge implications for playoffs or much else. What's left? Ah yes ... there it is ... Saturday night at the Horseshoe! Penn State visiting Ohio State. God I hope JoPa's boys can kick some Buckeye tail! There's nothing better than watching OSU lose.

As for those NFL games, I do have some thoughts. Let's see if I can crack double digits for a change. I'm going with a lot of home teams in the hope that that might actually help this week. Here we go ...

Texans over Bengals - I just think Cincinatti is nearly as hopeless as Detroit. Houston is going to look like they're on a roll after this, but their recent opponents provide that deception.

Bucs over Cowboys - This is a bit of a toss up for me, but I think Dallas is spiralling out of control and the injuries and suspensions aren't going to let them get any better quickly enough.

Redskins over Lions - I've stated here before that I think the Leos are going to go 0-16 this year. Detroit's games now become automatic in my picks the rest of the way.

Bills over Dolphins - so yeah, I said I was liking the home teams this week and this is my third road pick in a row. Believe me, I'm getting to the homers.

Patriots over Rams - see? Home team. St. Louis is not good enough to win three in a row, even under the guidance of a new coach.

Chargers over Saints - okay, technically, this is another road pick ... but the game's in England! Aren't they both on the road? I just hope that San Diego brings the team that beat up on the Pats instead of the one who stunk up the joint in Buffalo.

Jets over Chiefs - Herm Edwards has got to feel down about leaving a decent Jets team to coach a lousy KC team with some fourth string QB trying to beat Favre in NY this weekend.

Eagles over Falcons - This one's going to be close. I'm pleasantly surprised watching Matt Ryan flourish this year the way rookies so rarely do. He's a lot of fun to cheer for. But I don't think he's got enough talent around him to win this game.

Panthers over Cardinals - no team from the Pacific or Mountain time zone has won a game outside their time zone yet this year. Don't expect this to be the first.

Ravens over Raiders - don't expect this to be the first either!

Jaguars over Browns - Jacksonville should be better than 3-3 right now. This is a playoff caliber team that needs to get the ball rolling and I think they'll do it at home against a weak Cleveland team.

Steelers over Giants - As discussed above, this should be a really good test of two top teams. With both sitting 5-1, we'll find out how much the Giants' record might have been helped by playing a lot of crappy teams so far and how ready they are to defend their title.

49ers over Seahawks - two crappy teams coming together here. I'm going to take San Fran mostly because they'll be motivated to perform after the coaching shake up.

Titans over Colts - this should also be a really good Monday night game this week. I like the Titans to remain undefeated because their defence could really do damage against a poorly performing Colts offensive line and make it a long night for Captain Pants's boy Peyton.

Enjoy the weekend! I'll be off Sunday to watch a far lesser observed sporting event, the ISU World Cup Short Track Speed Skating event here in Van City. Go Canada!