NFL - The Final Week

So it comes down tot he final week in football land with several teams still in contention and a whole bunch more playing for nothing.  Who will win?  Who will step up?  I think it's become clear that I have absolutely no idea, but that's not going to stop me from throwing out my two cents!

Falcons over Rams - with a shot at winning the division still, Atlanta should destroy a St. Louis team just trying to get to cleaning out their lockers and taking a few months off.

Patriots over Bills - New England could become just the second team to win 11 games and miss the playoffs.  They'll take care of business and then have to watch the Jets-Dolphins game to determine their fate.

Bengals over Chiefs - the inept Chiefs will find make sure to enhance their draft position with yet another loss against the almost equally woefull Bengals.

Packers over Lions - with an inability to break their 17 year losing streak in Wisconsin, Detroit will become the first ever 0-16 team and go down in history.

Colts over Titans - in another meaningless matchup between these two teams in Week 17 (it happened last year too), Jim Sorgi will play the stand in QB role a little better than Vince Young and the Colts will leave with a win.

Giants over Vikings - I'm breaking my trend here of picking the team with something to play for over the team with nothing on the line.  But really, I have so little faith in NFC North teams that I just can't stand to pick the Vikes.

Panthers over Saints - Carolina needs this one to stage off a late comeback in the standings and hang on to the division.  New Orleans will be gunning though for the both the win and for Brees to break Marino's passing yardage record, so this game should be fun to watch!

Dolphins over Jets - after watching New England beat the Bills, New York will know they have nothing to play for and they'll come out flat.  Pennington will have his revenge and the Fish will be in the playoffs just a year after going 1-15.  Maybe there is some far off hope for the Lions!

Cowboys over Eagles - in another scheduling twist, the NFL has given the Cowboys a distinct advantage in that Philly will know before the game begins that they've been eliminated from contention.

Steelers over Browns - the big question here isn't who will win, but rather will Cleveland manage to score an offensive touchdown again before the season ends.  After all, it's been six weeks since their last one!

Bucs over Raiders - Tampa will keep their very slim hopes alive by at least taking care of their own business.  Then they'll have to wait for some help.

Ravens over Jaguars - Baltimore controls their own fate here and I can't imagine them blowing it against a Jacksonville team that gave up playing hard a long time ago.

Texans over Bears - Despite the Minnesota loss I predicted above, I think that Chicago's offensive ineptitude ultimately will cost them the opportunity to win the division and get into the dance.

Cardinals over Seahawks - after winning an emotional one last weekend, I don't think Seattle will travel well this week.  Arizona is desperate to get back on track before they go into their opening round playoff game.  Their not going to get a playoff win, but I think they'll make the home fans happy one more time, anyway.

49ers over Redskins - with neither team truly playing for anything, I have to give this one to the home team.

Chargers over Broncos - finally, in the final game scheduled, Denver and San Diego will renew acquaintances in the Hochuli Bowl.  If Ed Hochuli hadn't blown a call in week one that cost San Diego the game against Denver, the roles would be reversed with the Chargers having the division lead.  They deserve to win this division more than Denver and I think fate will find a way to make things right.  Ole Eddie sure hopes so, anyway!

Merry Christmas and enjoy the final week before the dance begins!

Embarrassed by the Lions

I hate that I like the Lions. How can I not feel embarrassed about being a fan of this team? After they lose in Green Bay this week (and who are we kidding ... they will ... they haven't won there in 17 years), it's going to go down as the worst season any professional sports team has ever had. Winless. Not even competitive. They were outscored in eight games at home by 176 points. That breaks the NFL record by 30! They have the 30th ranked offense in yards, 27th ranked offense in points, and the 32nd ranked defense in both points and yards. That's 27th, 30th, and 32nd out of 32 teams in the four most important statistics to winning and losing. It's no wonder that the season has come to this.

But they're doing more than losing. They're doing it in a league that prides itself on parity. It's a league with a very restrictive salary cap designed to make sure that you can't end up with a "Yankees" type team buying up all the free agent talent. They're losing while teams with historically terrible management still manage to win three or four games a year (see: Raiders, Browns, Bengals).

And yet what do the fans get for their patronage? We get seven and a half years of being managed by Matt Millen. Under his guidance, the personnel department built a team that went 31-84 (a 0.270 winning percentage). Upon his firing, the Ford family, who own the team, promoted two guys from the management team that Millen had in place to act as co-GM's. And while they have can hardly take all the blame for this year because they couldn't make many personnel moves through the season, I hardly think that anyone from Millen's tenure should be given the benefit of the doubt and more time. But more time is exactly what they'll get as Ford announced this week that they'll be in place again next year.

I want to give up on them. I really do. I want to pick one of the exciting young teams out there like Atlanta or Baltimore with rookie QB's and rookie coaches and watch them rise up and get me excited. I want to stop caring about this hopeless waste of energy in Detroit. But I'm not a bandwagon jumper. I have to have some faith that with new ownership (see: Ford bankruptcy?), and top to bottom firings, and some time to evolve, I might get to cheer for a winner. After all, I was cheering for the Red Wings back in the '80's when they were the Dead Things, and look where that's gotten me now!

NFL Week 16

The stretch run is here and a whole bunch of games that don't matter will be contested. So trying to pick them becomes a case of trying to figure out who has something to play for, who has something to prove, and who is trying to save their job for next year. There are also a few really exciting battles looming, so on we go ...

Colts over Jags - we start tonight with what shouldn't be a very good game. But Indy and Jacksonville always seem to play tight games and this one is in Florida. I think Peyton will do just enough though to get it done and keep the Colts rolling.

Cowboys over Ravens - as much as I want to pick Baltimore and see Flacco be successful and make the playoffs, this is the last game in Texas Stadium and Dallas should come out all fired up to give the fans a good show.

Browns over Bengals - These teams both stink, but Cleveland stinks just a little bit less. They'll play hard for Crenel with all the rumours swirling around him getting canned at the end of the year.

Lions over Saints - yes, that's right. I'm picking Detroit. New Orleans has nothing left to play for. They're only 1-6 on the road. Reggie Bush is out for the year. Brees' numbers are down the last three weeks. Everything just points to this being the week. It probably won't be, but I have to try picking them once this year (if you look back, I actually did pick them in Week 1 ... my bad).

Steelers over Titans - Pittsburgh is getting it done ugly and Tennessee isn't threatening anyone the last few weeks. I think the Steelers will find a way to get it done playing for home field all the way through the playoffs.

Dolphins over Chiefs - Miami still holds their playoff fate in their own hands, being able to win the division by winning out. That's motivation enough to beat a lousy KC team.

49ers over Rams - San Francisco is playing really well lately. They're not a very talented team, but Singletary has them playing harder than any of their opponents and that's enough for them to win in this league of parity.

Falcons over Vikings - Atlanta should come out running and be able to shove it down Minnesota's collective throat all afternoon with the Vikes losing their best run stopper, Pat Williams for the rest of the regular season.

Patriots over Cardinals - There should be a few very disillusioned teams (Atlanta, Tampa, Chicago, Minnesota), a couple of whom will miss out on the playoffs while this lousy Arizona team beat up on an even weaker division and will still only manage an 8-8 record but still get a home playoff game!

Panthers over Giants - Carolina has not been winning games on the road, but the possibility of getting home field all the way through the NFC Championship will be motivation enough. Their defense will be able to stop a struggling Giants offense and they'll be able to put up enough running yards to get some points.

Eagles over Redskins - what happened to Washington? Half way through the year they were considered contenders. Now? Now they lost to the Bengals! Has any team slid further?

Broncos over Bills - okay maybe the Bills have slid further. From 5-1 to a very probable 6-10. That's Detroit Lion like. Remember last year when the Lions went from 6-2 to 7-9? Denver will do enough to get this done and lock up the division.

Texans over Raiders - Houston is on quite a roll and now they get a cupcake to guarantee a .500 season. There will likely be some high hopes for this team next year.

Jets over Seahawks - I'm not positive about this one. It'll be Holmgren's last game as coach in Seattle and he'll have the guys well motivated to win this one and spoil NY's playoff hopes. The Hawks played New York's division rivals tough this year. But I think that Favre's desire to get back to the playoffs will let him get it done.

Bucs over Chargers - San Diego will know by game time if they still have something to play for. If the Broncos lose, then a SD win sets up a week 17 matchup for the division. However, since I've predicted Denver to win, the Bolts will have nothing to play for and will come out flat.

Bears over Packers - home field will be the difference in what looks to be an unbelievably frigid Monday Night Football matchup. I feel for those fans who will be watching their beer freeze over in the stands at Soldier Field.

Enjoy the weekend!

Inside the NFL

There's an excellent story about Justin Blalock of the Atlanta Falcons today in Peter King's Monday Morning QB - Tuesday Edition article on Sports Illustrated. I'd like to share it here since the Monday night game was such a garbage contest and I have nothing else to really talk about.

Now for the Blalock story. I'm almost rooting for the Falcons to make it, just so Blalock gets his due. Think back to overtime Sunday, Atlanta and Tampa Bay tied at 10, the Falcons driving. On second-and-eight from the Buc 43, Matt Ryan scrambled forward, and from behind Buc defensive end Kevin Carter dove on his back and stripped the ball from Ryan at the Buc 39. Tampa Bay linebacker linebacker Barrett Ruud dove on the ball, cradled it in his right arm as he attempted to curl his body over the ball, and within a millsecond was snowed under by Bucs and Falcons alike.

Six seconds later, as the officials pried bodies away from the pile, they signaled for the Falcons and yelled, "Atlanta ball!'' And Blalock emerged with the football.

So what happened?

"Mostly grasping, gouging and punching in some unmentionable areas,'' said Blalock, a second-year guard from Texas. "Just chaos. Hopefully our season doesn't come down to that one play, but if that's the big one, I'm glad I was able to make it.''

What happens on the bottom of scrums is one of the great mysteries of the NFL. Once, Boomer Esiason told me he was at the bottom of a pile, having lost a fumble, and looked over to see Cleveland Browns nose tackle Bob Golic right next to his face. They couldn't go anywhere, so Boomer said to him: "Hey, you ever get those boots I sent you?'' Seems that Esiason had sent Golic a pair of Cowboy boots as thanks for an appearance on a radio show of his, and Golic said yes, he got them, and thank you. But it's usually not that cordial under there.

In this case, Blalock saw the ball come out, saw Ruud beginning to cradle it, and just dove for it. "He [Ruud] had one hand on it and he was trying to get his body over it so no one could pry it loose. I got my right arm in there, then wedged my body closer and just sort of moved him out of the way and got on the ball. It's physics. I'm just bigger, and I had the leverage. Then it was just crazy, with everybody jumping in there and trying to get it. My guys kept asking, 'You got it? You got it?' And I said I had it.''

He said it didn't occur to him how big the play was at the time. But the Falcons finished the drive with the winning Jason Elam field goal. If Ruud recovers that fumble, the Bucs would have needed to drive 30 yards to try a winning field goal of their own. At 8-6, Atlanta would have been a longshot in the NFC playoff race, needing two wins and lots of help to make it. At 9-5, they're major players.

"I didn't have the luxury to think about that at the time, obviously,'' Blalock said. "Now that I can think about it, I'm pretty happy. The strange thing is, that's only the second time I've ever touched the ball in a football game. At Texas once, I recovered a fumbled snap late one game. But that's it. This one is probably a little bigger.''

This one, in fact, is the kind of thievery that can save a season.

Here's Hoping!

The Lions put up a valiant effort against the Colts yesterday. Say what you will about how terrible they are, at least they haven't just packed it in. Apparently, trying to avoid going winless for the year is actually something to play for! Which is why I'm going to put it all out there and say that Detroit is going to get a win against either New Orleans or Green Bay in the next two contests. While Detroit is fighting to avoid going down as the first 0-16 team ever, New Orleans and Green Bay really have nothing to play for at all. Neither has any playoff hopes remaining, so the only thing facing them will be trying to avoid the ignominy of being the only teams that didn't beat the Lions. Add on the fact that the Saints have been hopeless on the road (1-6 so far) and that Drew Brees' production has fallen off over the past three games and I think the win could come at home on Sunday. So remember that you heard it here first. Detroit moves to 1-14 Sunday afternoon at Ford Field.

If I'm right, do you think anyone in New Orleans will be amused by the symmetry of Detroit cracking the win column against the Saints just as the winless 1976 Tampa Bay team finally got their first win in their 13th game of 1977 against none other than these same New Orleans Saints?

NFL Week 15

Here I come with post number 100 on this blog! They add up quick, evidently. And I come with picks for week 15 after getting off to a rocky start with the Saints losing last night. I did at least say it would be a close one and I lost when Chicago won the coin toss in OT. The NFL really needs to do something about that overtime format where the team winning the coin toss almost always wins the game. It hardly seems fair for them to battle for 60 minutes and then have the game decided by random chance. In any case, let's hope the other 15 picks turn out better!

Falcons over Bucs - The Bucs defense played a pathetic game Monday night and will no doubt bounce back with a better performance. I like the Falcons though because I think they'll be more desperate. Both teams have easy contests in weeks 16 and 17, but Atlanta needs to win out to make the playoffs, whereas Tampa can lose one and still have a shot.

Redskins over Bengals - Washington finally gets a win over a hopeless Cincinnati team.

Colts over Lions - This is a 1:00 pm start and should be over by about 1:10. Indy will take a four TD lead in the first half and Peyton will have a nap on the sidelines during the second half.

Chargers over Chiefs - too little, way too late for San Diego. Quite a disappointing year for the Bolts.

Seahawks over Rams - speaking of disappointing years, Seattle has really been a letdown. However, give them a ton of credit because they're not just playing out the string, they're laying it all on the line to get a few more W's.

Dolphins over 49ers - Miami will win this one, but it will be close. San Francisco is really playing hard under Mike Singletary and with a couple more solid efforts, the "Interim" tag should come off his "Head Coach" title.

Jets over Bills - New York finally gets back on the right track this week while the Bills confirm their fall from 4-0 and on top of the world to 6-10 and a long winter.

Panthers over Broncos - just call more runs to the right John Fox! Keep going there until it stops working. 300 yards against the Bucs D could be even more against a porous Broncos defense. The Panthers will remain perfect at home and on pace for home field advantage.

Packers over Jaguars - battle of underachievers here. Jacksonville is worse though and I don't expect them to do much even against the thoroughly poor Green Bay defense. Since GB hasn't been able to win at Lambeau lately, maybe a little road cooking is just what they need.

Ravens over Steelers - this is the game of the week to me. This will be the hardest hitting, manliest game, for sure. The sensational Joe Flacco will do just enough to outperform previous rookie sensation Roethlisberger. He'll just have to avoid those fatal turnovers that cost Romo the game against Pittsburgh last week.

Titans over Texans - it's going to be a shootout. These teams have been averaged a score of 29-26 in their last five meetings in favour of the Titans. I'm going to stick with the trend and pick Tennessee.

Cardinals over Vikings - I still think Minnesota stinks. They almost lost to the Lions both times the teams met. I mean, really ... how can you have any faith in a team that almost loses to the Lions?! Arizona is going to put up a ton of offense in the desert.

Patriots over the Raiders - New England keeps their playoff hopes alive with another west coast win that will likely be more difficult than it should be. After all, the Pats have made just about everything look difficult this year.

Cowboys over Giants - New York isn't playing for anything at all. They've already locked up the division and the only team that can catch them for home field through the NFC Championship game is the Jags who they can knock off themselves next week. This is a rest week for the G-Men and Dallas is going to benefit.

Eagles over Browns - where's the flex schedule now? Why are we stuck watching the crappy Browns on Monday night? Couldn't they have shifted Baltimore-Pittsburgh over? The last two Mondays don't get much better either. I guess last week's Tampa-Carolina game was as good as it gets!

Enjoy the weekend as the playoff picture continues to unfold!

The Buzz in Hockeytown

Finally! I watched a Wings game and they won! It took a lot more than it should have playing against a Calgary team that only arrived in Detroit at 4 am though. Calgary came out a lot harder than Detroit and won almost all of the battles for the first period, taking a 2-0 lead. After the first frame though, the game was all Detroit and with the Wings still trailing 3-1 half way through the third, the defending champs managed to really pick it up a notch and take over. Two goals in four minutes tied it up and Lidstrom managed to bury the winner in OT. As well as Detroit played in the second and, especially, the third periods, they need to do that from the opening faceoff a little more often to avoid giving up three every game. In net at the other end, it was Curtis McElhinney getting a rare start and absolutely standing on his head on a night where Detroit could have gotten 6 or 7 with all of the quality chances they had.

One last comment about the hockey game last night ... the refs did a decent job, but there were three penalties that follow a pattern I've been disturbed by this season. I realize that the league wants to open up the offense and eliminate the clutching and grabbing. However, there has been a rash of hooking, holding, and interference penalties that I think go too far. Rather than use judgment as to whether or not the player was inhibited from being able to make a play, the refs have been instructed to just call it as soon as a stick touches an opponent above waist level. Calgary got called for a phantom hold in the first period and Detroit was called for phantom hooks in the first and second. I know that by the rule book they were all the right calls. I just have visions of important games getting decided by power play goals on penalties that were really marginal in the level of interference run.

Onwards to tonight's New Orleans - Chicago game at Soldier Field. The weather is supposed to be cold and a bit breezy, but without snow or anything too severe. While I would imagine that the Saints will struggle a bit in the elements, and because they have gone win one, lose one most of the year, I don't trust the Bears to defeat any strong opponents. Chicago had a couple of strong wins in the early going against Indy and Philly, but that was before either of those teams started playing well. Since their bye week, the Bears only wins have been against the real weaklings of the league in Detroit, St. Louis and Jacksonville. So, I'm going to go out on a limb here and say that Drew Brees will do enough to get New Orleans a couple of TD's and the Saints will win a tight one.

Tune in tomorrow for the rest of my picks for the weekend!

Maybe in Week 17?

Does that final game against the Packers provide a chance for the Lions to avoid running the table in reverse? I thought their best shot would be against the Vikes this weekend, but having blown the fourth quarter lead yesterday, I look ahead to see if there's another opportunity.

Week 15 against the Colts? Nope. No chance. Peyton will eat this defense up and we'll see Jim Sorgi at QB by the second half. Week 16 against the Saints? Ditto with Drew Brees at the helm. But week 17. That's a possibility. Green Bay has been giving up a ton of points and yards lately, especially through the air. With the Pack at 5-8, they'll be officially eliminated from the playoffs before that week 17 game, so they won't really have anything to play for. And to top it all off, Detroit has actually been competitive in their last three divisional games, losing by 2, 4, and 4 points.

If there's any hope at all, it's going to come at Lambeau. Detroit hasn't won there in about a thousand years, but Green Bay is only 3-4 there this year too. I still have hope. But I'm sure not holding my breath.

NFL Week 14

Hard to say what's wrong with the Red Wings defensively these days. But beating the Canucks 6-5 last night brought me back to the early 90's days where Detroit would win wild shootouts all season long and then bow out quickly in the playoffs when every team tightens up and scores come down. This team is fundamentally unchanged from last season though, so hopefully they can pull themselves together and stop giving up so many. At least for now they've got the firepower to hang in while they get things fixed.

Now, on to the weekend to come. While college football has Championship weekend in the SEC and Big 12 to figure out who's going to play for the National Championship, pundits will continue to spout off about what a farce the BCS is and why we still can't get a playoff. But the facts remain, the BCS is run by conferences with their own financial interests in mind, and the current BCS does a better job of distributing the millions than a playoff would. Good luck convincing them to change their minds on multi-million dollar payouts every year!

While I didn't manage to post my pick for last night's game, I see that San Diego very expectedly put a beatdown on the Raiders. Everyone put your hand up if you didn't see that coming. No hands? Okay. We'll move on then.

Bears over Jaguars - What a colossal disappointment Jacksonville has been this year. I watched that Monday night game start to finish and they were just dreadful in every aspect.

Vikings over Lions - this is the only hope to avoid 0-16 really. It's entirely possible that the Leos could pull the upset, but I don't see it. Detroit got gashed by the Titans running game badly last week. Does anyone really think they'll do better against A. Pete, the best back in the league?

Packers over Texans - While Houston looked pretty good Monday night, they don't travel very well and I especially don't hold much hope for them travelling to the frozen tundra on a short week.

Titans over Browns - Tennessee really has had a pretty easy schedule, haven't they? They've only had to play four teams that are above .500 and they'll only have two more the rest of the way. That means they got nearly a third of their season against garbage teams with no playoff hopes. I'm not convinced that they're going to be prepared for football in January.

Colts over Bengals - With the Bengals, Lions, and Jags on the schedule, Indy is going to go from a 3-4 start to their last game against Tennessee at 11-4. That's an impressive run and should make them a scary wild card team to face in the first round of the playoffs!

Falcons over Saints - sounds like the Saints might not lose a bunch of guys to suspension with the legal battle ensuing, but since they can't seem to play with any consistency, I think Matt Ryan will do enough to keep Atlanta's playoff hopes alive.

Giants over Eagles - NY will battle hard to show that all this Plax mess isn't going to distract them. With the best offensive and defensive lines, I think they'll have no trouble. Besides, McNabb isn't going to put up great numbers against the G-Men the way he did against the Cardinals wobbly defense.

Ravens over Redskins - Washington seems to be sliding backwards lately and is going to leave a disappointed fan base after appearing to be a competitor at the start of the season. Baltimore is really starting to roll as they open up the playbook for Flacco.

Dolphins over Bills - How's this for good fortune? Instead of going to freezing cold, windy, probably snowy Buffalo for their road game, Miami gets to travel to Toronto for a game inside the cozy Skydome, er - Roger's Centre.

Broncos over Chiefs - Would the real Denver Broncos please stand up? Which team will it be this weekend? They lost to the Raiders, so it's entirely possible that they could lose this one. But I don't they'll get caught napping again.

Jets over 49ers - New York got humbled at home last week in a game they never should have lost. Now they've got a tough cross country trip to make. It's their good fortune, though, that they only have to face the Niners. And even though San Francisco is playing better these days, it shouldn't be enough to knock off a Jets team that needs to bounce back.

Cardinals over Rams - speaking of playoff teams who haven't really beaten anyone (see: Titans, above), the Cards are going to roll into January and we'll all be totally clueless as to whether they have any chance to win a playoff game. They're just fortunate to play in the crappy NFC West, where one more win will lock up the division title.

Steelers over Cowboys - this should be the best game of Sunday. Pittsburgh is riding high after destroying the Pats and the Cowboys are picking up after a mid-season slump with guys returning from injuries. The pick here is a bit of a toss-up, but the way the Steelers played last week and with this one being played in the Ketchup Bottle, I've got to go with Pittsburgh.

Patriots over Seahawks - New England is lucky to face a bad Seattle team to try to bounce back from that loss to the Steelers. They'll be in tougher than they might think though against the Seahawks at home. Hasselbeck is getting back into the groove and this one should at least be competitive.

Bucs over Panthers - Despite a 9-3 record, I still don't have a lot of faith in Carolina. I think that Tampa is just the better team here and I look for them to prove it and take a huge step towards the division title Monday night.

Modern Pentathlon - Neither Modern, nor "Penta"

Here's a story that you probably missed last week: the Modern Pentathlon, which hasn't been "modern" roughly since it was created as an Olympic event in 1912, is to receive an update! The event that has for nearly a century combined pistol shooting, fencing, swimming, horse jumping, and running (how's that for a modern mix?!), is getting a facelift as outlined in this article from the New York Times.

The shooting and running will now be combined, which has led to the obvious conclusion that several NBA and NFL stars might now have a chance at Olympic glory if they can just learn how to fence and ride a horse!

I suppose the combination of running and shooting makes the final event of the competition a "biathlon" of sorts. If you follow up three individual events with a biathlon, is it still five? Yeah, I would say so. But Modern? I still don't think I can give them that one.